All Playbooks The Scratch Project

Measure Playbook · Guide 26

Stats Interpretation

How to read Arccos, Shot Scope, and Strokes Gained data — what each SG metric means, which weaknesses to prioritise, translating numbers into a practice plan, avoiding false patterns in small samples, and the complete multi-tool weekly review workflow.

📊 Strokes Gained🎯 Arccos 📡 Shot Scope🔍 Pattern Recognition 📋 Practice Plan⚠️ Sample Size

The Stats Framework

On-course stat tracking converts subjective "I think I need to work on X" into objective "the data shows I lose 1.2 strokes per round on approaches from 150–175 yards." The difference between those two statements is the difference between purposeful practice and comfortable practice.

📊 Data-Driven Improvement
Why Traditional Stats Miss the Point

Fairways Hit and GIR Are the Wrong Metrics

Traditional golf statistics — fairways hit, greens in regulation, putts per round — are flawed as improvement guides. They conflate quality and context. Strokes Gained solves both problems by measuring performance relative to expectation — every shot compared to the Tour average for that exact situation.

Why Traditional Stats Mislead
Putts per round: 28 putts could mean excellent putting
OR missing 8 greens by 1 foot (easy chips, short putts).
Same number — completely different meaning.

GIR: 10 greens hit from average of 185 yards
OR 10 greens hit from average of 142 yards.
Same GIR — completely different ball-striking quality.
The Five Strokes Gained Categories

The Complete Picture of Your Game

CategoryCoversTour Average10 HCP Typical
SG: Off the Tee (OTT)All tee shots on par 4s and 5s0.00−0.8 to −1.2
SG: Approach (APP)All approach shots to the green0.00−1.2 to −1.8
SG: Around the Green (ARG)Chips, pitches, bunker under 30 yds0.00−0.6 to −1.0
SG: Putting (PUTT)All putts on the green0.00−0.4 to −0.8
SG: TotalSum of all four categories0.00−3.0 to −4.5

The scratch standard: A scratch golfer averages approximately 0.00 across all SG categories vs. Tour average. The SG breakdown tells you exactly where those 3–4 lost strokes occur — and therefore where practice time produces the highest return.

Strokes Gained — Deep Dive

Each SG category measures a distinct part of the game and requires a different interpretation approach. Understanding what the numbers mean — and what they don't — prevents misdiagnosis and misallocated practice time.

🔬 SG Mechanics
SG: Approach — The Most Impactful Category

Where Most of the Game Is Won or Lost

SG: Putting — The Most Misread Category

Make Percentage by Distance

DistanceTour Make %Scratch Make %10 HCP Make %
3 feet99%97%92%
5 feet88%80%68%
8 feet65%52%38%
10 feet52%40%28%
15 feet32%22%14%
20 feet20%13%8%
💡

Critical cross-reference: Poor SG: PUTT can indicate approach shot problems, not putting problems. A player consistently leaving approaches at 45 feet will have worse SG: PUTT than one leaving them at 18 feet — even with identical putting technique. Always cross-reference with SG: APP before concluding you have a putting problem.

SG: Off the Tee

Distance vs. Accuracy Trade-off

SG: Around the Green

The Most Undervalued Category at 10 HCP

Scrambling % — Make Par After Missing Green
Tour average
58–62%
Scratch amateur
46–52%
5 HCP
36–40%
10 HCP
24–28%

Arccos & Shot Scope

Both platforms automatically track every shot using GPS sensors. Both produce SG data but differ in interface, subscription model, and depth of specific analytics. Arccos now offers three hardware options including Air (sensorless) and Gen 4 sensors.

📡 Platform Guide
Arccos — Gen 4 Sensors & Air

Three Hardware Options, Same Analytics

Shot Scope V5 Pro

Key Features and Dashboard Navigation

Golfmetrics

Manual-Entry SG — The Precision Tool

Hole19, 18Birdies & Hybrid Platforms

GPS-First with Partial SG

Platform Comparison

Which Platform for Which Player

PlatformMethodSG DepthCostBest For
Arccos CaddieAuto (grip sensors)Full — 5 categories~£120/yrConvenience + AI caddie
Shot ScopeAuto (wrist device)Full + handicap compare~£150 devicePhone-free tracking
GolfmetricsManual entryMost granular~£50/yrAccuracy over convenience
Hole19 PremiumGPS + manualPartial~£30/yrEntry-level tracking
18Birdies ProGPS + manualPartialFree/£30/yrSupplementary tracking

Strokes Gained Without a Tracking Device

Every recommendation in this system assumes SG data — but the methodology does not require Arccos, Shot Scope, or any paid tracker. A pen, a simple scorecard template, and 10 minutes per round produces genuinely useful SG estimates. This tab is your complete starting point if you have no tracking device, or simply prefer manual recording.

📝 The Five-Number Method
What to Record — Five Numbers Per Hole

The Minimum Viable Dataset

💡

Where to write it: Most scorecards have a blank column or back page. A 5-character code per hole (e.g. "F-12-Y-2-—") takes under 10 seconds to record after each hole and does not slow play.

Converting Manual Data to SG Categories

Approximate Mapping — Good Enough to Act On

SG CategoryWhat to Track ManuallyHow to Interpret
SG: Off the TeeFairways hit % + penalty count on par 4/5 tee shotsUnder 50% fairways with 1+ penalty/round = OTT is a leak. Over 60% with 0 penalties = OTT is fine, look elsewhere.
SG: ApproachAverage proximity (paces) on approach shots, split into bands: under 100yd, 100–150yd, 150–175yd, over 175ydIf your 100–175yd average proximity is consistently 30+ paces, this matches the confirmed primary leak zone (Guide 37, Guide 51) — prioritise accordingly.
SG: Around the GreenUp-and-down % from missed greensUnder 40% up-and-down = short game leak. Over 55% = short game is a strength.
SG: PuttingPutts per round; 3-putt countOver 32 putts/round or 2+ three-putts/round = putting leak. Under 30 putts/round with 0–1 three-putts = putting is fine.
Double bogeysCount holes scored 2+ over par2+ double bogeys per round is the single biggest manual signal — see Guide 20 (Course Management) for the elimination framework regardless of which category causes them.
The Spreadsheet Option

Free Manual SG Tracking — Google Sheets

If you want closer-to-true SG numbers without a paid tracker, a free Google Sheet with the five inputs above plus a lookup table of PGA Tour average "expected strokes to hole out" by distance and lie (publicly available from Mark Broadie's published research and multiple golf analytics blogs) lets you calculate genuine SG values manually.

⚠️

Don't let perfect be the enemy of useful: Manually-tracked data is noisier than sensor data — a single round tells you very little. The five-number method becomes useful after 10 rounds and genuinely informative after 20, exactly like Arccos. The advantage of starting now with manual tracking is that you begin building your 20-round sample immediately, at zero cost, while you decide whether to invest in hardware.

Prioritising Improvements

Your SG data reveals multiple weaknesses simultaneously. The skill is identifying which weakness to address first — the one that produces the largest expected scoring improvement per hour of practice invested.

🎯 Priority Framework
The ROI Prioritisation Matrix

Strokes Per Hour of Practice — Which Category Pays Most

CategorySG LossPractice Hours to +0.5 SGPriority
SG: Approach (150–175 yds)−0.8/rnd20–40 hrs1st — highest ROI
SG: Around-Green scrambling−0.6/rnd15–30 hrs2nd — highly trainable
SG: Off the Tee (penalty rate)−0.4/rnd10–20 hrs3rd — strategic fix first
SG: Putting (5–10 ft)−0.3/rnd20–40 hrs4th — smaller marginal gain

The 10 HCP to scratch truth: Across 200,000+ tracked rounds, SG: Approach accounts for 40% of the scoring gap between 10 HCP and scratch. Approach before putting — always. The instinct to practise putting is strong; the data consistently shows approach work pays more.

When to Deviate From Data Priority

Conditions Where the Matrix Does Not Apply

Data to Practice Plan

Translating SG data into a practice plan requires a clear bridge between what the numbers show and what specific drill or session addresses it. This tab provides that bridge.

📋 Translation Framework
SG Data → Specific Practice Action

The Four-Step Translation

SG Data to Drill Reference

Which Guide and Drill to Use for Each SG Weakness

SG WeaknessLikely CauseGuide ReferenceSpecific Drill / Protocol
SG: APP 150–175 ydsBall speed, attack angle, or miss directionGuide 03 + Mevo guideAttack angle protocol; miss direction aim points
SG: APP proximity — all distancesDynamic loft inconsistencyGuide 03 Wrist Mech.Lead wrist flexion drills; HackMotion impact position
SG: ARG up-and-down rateLanding zone accuracyGuide 02 Adv. WedgeSpin mapping protocol; landing zone targeting drill
SG: ARG bunker save rateEntry point, bounce utilisationGuide 02 Bunker tabSand entry drill; bounce-first impact protocol
SG: PUTT — 5–10 feetStart line accuracyGuide 01 Direction tabAlignment stick drill; chalk line gate drill
SG: PUTT — lag puttingPace control from distanceGuide 01 Pace tabClock drill; target-focus long putt protocol
SG: OTT — penalty rateTee strategy, miss directionGuide 20 Tee StrategyMiss direction planning; tee box positioning
SG: OTT — distance lossSpeed, GRF, smash factorGuide 25 + Guide 06 GRFRypstick speed protocol; GRF Phase 1–3 drills

Sample Size & False Patterns

The greatest risk in data-driven improvement is making significant practice changes based on patterns that do not yet exist — small samples amplify noise into apparent signals. Understanding minimum sample requirements prevents wasted practice time chasing ghosts.

⚠️ Sample Size Rules
Minimum Rounds for Reliable Conclusions

When You Can and Cannot Trust the Data

Conclusion TypeMinimum RoundsConfidence LevelWhat to Do With Less Data
Identify dominant SG weakness10–15Moderate (70%+)Treat as a working hypothesis — do not restructure full practice
Specific distance band weakness20–25Good (80%+)Note the pattern; wait for confirmation in next 5 rounds
Technique change is working15–20ModerateUse Mevo data as early confirmation — SG follows technique with a lag
Confirm practice plan is working25–30Good (80%+)3-round baseline + 25 rounds post-change minimum
Seasonal handicap trend40+High (90%+)Use HCP trend + SG combination, not SG alone
Common False Pattern Traps

What Looks Like Signal But Is Noise

Weekly Multi-Tool Synthesis

Your programme uses five data sources simultaneously: Arccos/Shot Scope (on-course SG), Mevo (ball flight and club data), HackMotion (wrist mechanics), video analysis (movement pattern), and HRV/readiness (training state). Each guide covers its tool in isolation. This section provides the unified weekly review workflow that synthesises all five into a single, coherent practice priority each week.

🔄 The Five-Tool Ecosystem
How the Five Tools Relate to Each Other

The Diagnostic Chain — Input to Output

The Diagnostic Hierarchy
HRV (readiness) → determines training intensity available
Arccos / Shot Scope → identifies WHERE strokes are lost on course
Mevo → identifies WHY (ball flight cause: face, path, attack angle)
HackMotion → identifies the ROOT CAUSE (wrist mechanics driving the Mevo numbers)
Video Analysis → CONFIRMS the physical movement pattern behind the numbers
Always diagnose top-down: SG category → Mevo data → HackMotion → Video.
Reverse-engineering (video first) is slower and less precise.
Tool Priority by Question Type

Which Tool to Consult First

QuestionFirst ToolConfirming ToolRoot Cause Tool
"Where am I losing strokes?"Arccos/Shot Scope SGProximity by distanceMiss pattern plot
"Why is my approach proximity poor?"Mevo: face angle, F2P, attack angleHackMotion: impact wristVideo: impact sequence
"Why is my ball curving?"Mevo: spin axis, F2PHackMotion: lead wrist flexionVideo: release pattern
"Am I ready to train hard today?"HRV readingResting heart rateSleep quality (Oura/Whoop)
"Is my technique change working?"HackMotion: position comparisonMevo: spin axis before/afterArccos: SG change over 10+ rounds
"What is my practice priority this week?"Arccos 10-round rolling SGMevo session dataHackMotion trend data
🗓️ The 30-Minute Weekly Review Protocol
Sunday Evening Review — Complete Step-by-Step

30 Minutes That Set the Week's Practice Priority

🔍 Resolving Contradictory Data
When Arccos and Mevo Disagree

The Most Common Data Conflicts and How to Resolve Them

ConflictSG DataMevo DataMost Likely ExplanationResolution
Good technique, poor SG: APPSG: APP −1.0+Face angle, F2P — normal rangeStrategic error: wrong club, poor aim points, under-clubbingReview approach strategy in Guide 20; check Arccos average carry vs. perceived carry
Good SG: APP, poor SG: PUTTSG: PUTT −0.8Approach metrics normalReal putting issue OR leaving approaches too far from flagCheck average approach proximity in Arccos. If >25 ft average, it is an approach problem — not putting
Improving HackMotion, no SG gainSG flatSpin axis improvingSG data has a lag — needs 10–15 rounds to show technique improvementTrust HackMotion data short-term; wait 15 rounds for SG confirmation before concluding the change is not working
Good Mevo in sessions, poor on-courseSG: APP poorRange data — goodPractice structure issue: blocked range practice not transferringSwitch to interleaved/simulation practice immediately (Guide 05 Practice Science)
📊 Progress Tracking Dashboard — Monthly Review
The Monthly Performance Review

Metrics to Track and Compare Month-to-Month

Once per month — ideally on the same weekend each month — run a 60-minute comprehensive performance review using the following metric set. Record all results in the Progress Journal (Guide 17).

MetricToolRecordTarget Direction
SG: Total (10-round rolling)Arccos/Shot ScopeAbsolute value + trendIncreasing (less negative)
SG: APP (10-round rolling)Arccos/Shot ScopeBy distance bandImproving in weakest band
Driver club speed (benchmark test)Mevo — 10 shots, middle 6 avgmph to 1 decimalIncreasing (speed protocol working)
Driver smash factorMevo — same sessionTo 2 decimal placesAbove 1.46 consistently
7-iron spin axis avgMevo — 8 shots, middle 6± degreesReducing toward ±5°
Lead wrist at top (HackMotion)HackMotion P4Degrees flexion/extensionMoving toward −5° to −15° (flex)
Lead wrist at impact (HackMotion)HackMotion P7Degrees flexion/extensionMoving toward −8° to −18° (flex)
HRV 30-day averageHRV app / Oura / WhooprMSSD valueStable or increasing (recovery improving)
Average approach proximityArccos/Shot ScopeFeet, by distance bandReducing (closer to flag)
Up-and-down rateArccos/Shot ScopePercentageIncreasing toward 35%+

The longitudinal value: A single month of data tells you very little. Twelve months of consistent monthly data tells you everything — which training blocks produced speed gains, which technique changes improved spin axis, which practice structure changes improved SG: APP transfer, and whether HRV-guided training produced better adaptation than the prior fixed-schedule approach. The monthly review is the compound interest mechanism of the entire programme. Skipping it is the equivalent of investing without ever checking returns.

Related Playbooks

🤖 Golf Coach AI 📡 Mevo Gen2 Data Mastery 📓 Progress Journal 🏆 24-Month Scratch Plan
🎯Shot Dispersion 🏌️The Complete Golfer
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